but a lot of crypto plays, including a coinbase a large market for trading crypto, pretty much anything, surging right now. this is excess of 12%. had been up close to 16% on indications maybe, maybe this has been overdone, that there will be stability returning to the whole crypto arena. too soon to tell, but at least today that is the take. let's go to charles payne take you through the next hour. charles: we have michael saylor, talk about someone who put it all along the line for bitcoin. he is one of our guests today. neil: wow, absolutely. charles: thank you, neil. i'm charles payne. this is "making money." it's alive, it es alive. stocks are in one of the worst drubbings in history. is this a head fake? i agree with individual investors the playing field is unfair. i will share an example with you that will make your head explode. nobody has more bitcoin swagger

than michael saylor. it made him the target of the establishment and a whole lot of others. i will ask him what's next and should there be limits to his cheerleading. the housing boom, why some cities have not participated. why crime is one of the biggest economic stories of the day. deneen borelli is here to sound off. and much more on "making money." ♪. charles: well, it is the first day of summer. that is why i got on the seersucker but there is no doldrums in the market, right? on the contrary, stocks out of the gate with a lot of flair a lot of gusto. very few market observers believe a bottom has been established n fact, here's the thing, if you're a long term investor how much does it matter if this is the absolute bottom or part of a bottoming phase? i want to bring in laffer cio nancy tengler and define cio,

ceo, sylvia jablonski. ladies i want to start with this. equity fund flow is robust as market goes into free flow. this has wall street perplexed. funds never stopped coming into this market, it is pouring into the market even though the market is taking this kind of a drubbing, when you look at this, nancy, are individuals doing the right thing. >> oh absolutely, charles. i think the bears are not in charge very often so you get very vocal bears in periods like this. as you talked about you miss five best days in the market of 1980, first quarter of 2022, your portfolio is 38% lower in value just from missing the five best days. maybe today is one of those best days. you want to maintain discipline as you seek places to go. i wrote about starbucks in the 2007, 2008 period. i bought it after it was down 30%. this was pre-great financial crisis. charles schultz, schultz came

back and ran the company, the stock went from 30 to 40, split adjusted it was a 15-dollar purchase. after the great financial crisis it got down to $4.73. i held on to my shares and i'm at 470% versus 260 in the market. if i bought, added to it at the bottom i would be up 1800%. want to focus on great companies, just use discipline as you do in your 401(k) to fold in more money as time goes on. charles: it is interesting, by the way the other schultz was a pretty good cartoonist, right. >> thanks for bailing me out. charles: talking about all the money flowing into the market, technology by far is getting the most. look at money pouring into technology. ironically a lot of money going out of financials, at beginning of the year wall street said would be phenomenal. you advocating buying technology throughout the downturn. wall street saying technology will not return to the leadership role. when did they get it wrong? >> hi, charles.

i don't buy it. i think technology has been indiscrimminantly oversold now. not all technology. i think classic x work at home types of trades will not work anymore. a lot of different types of technology stocks. if you look at top names, amazon, argue consumer discretionary on that one, throw in the cloud, apple, microsoft, google, i think these companies are down 20 to 30% plus. if you look at -- mild recession, market, s&p is down 25%. both of them are down, a larger amount than that. the froth is taken off these names. most are lower. if you think about the future, why is there not buying on the way down? look i'm not fully up on positions i bought into last couple weeks but i'm holding these things forever. i will pass these stocks some day i hope. i think they're part of secular growth trends, part of 5g,

digitalized economy, cyber, consumer needs, consumer discretionary, web growth, all these things will continue to grow. the -- is 60, 70%. charles: it boggles the mine, these names unique in time and history are being sort of written off. another thing, nancy i want to go back to you for a moment, retail investors have been buying, fund managers, they have been selling, in fact they are selling so much now we have a massive underweight here. this is the most since may of 2020, october of 2008. those were interesting times. maybe those were buy signals back then. what do you make of this, these professional money managers sold this many stocks because there used to be this old thing about buying low? >> i think what is so interesting, charles, you hear talk about it on tv, i got out during the commercial. charles: during the commercial [laughter] >> individuals can't do that they have to pay taxes.

you know i think it is important for investors to keep that in mind the institutional end of our business has become so shortsighted, the algos sell the stocks in the morning and read the headlines and buy them back in the afternoon. the rest of us don't live in that world. i encourage all of your viewers who are obviously very smart to continue to take advantage, my generation needs to be counterculture. we were stick it to the man generation. now you're seeing flow along with the flow. that is not how you make money in the stock market. you have to do exactly what sylvia said. we've been buying many of those same names. you keep adding to them, because the secular narrative is there. you will see claims on real assets, shares of stocks, you will be glad you did this three to five years. charles: it is so funny, i sold it during the commercial that is best line i've heard in a long time. silvia, last word, this is something you espouse, buy great names, take advantage of great

dips. all the institutions come around and they will be ones buying high instead of buying low. >> amen. nancy hit the nail on the hedge, dollar-cost averaging especially younger investor. dollar-cost-average your way into massive retirement f you're long the market, you don't have cash you need to take out or cash to deploy. hang on, hang on. a lot of times 20 to 30% out returns see major pullbacks in major indices. don't experience massive losses now as nancy said. you will miss five days top returns. you will be kicking yourself. hang on, for the long term. don't try to beat the al go guys. charles: ladies great, grade advice on first day of summer. we have a bear market bounce. everyone watching the show wants to be in it for the long term. appreciate it. nancy, sylvia. i want to bring in adaptive market technician ian mcmillan.

i think this market would be up a whole lot more if the 10-year yield is down. this bad boy is persistent. the 10-year did pull back it got to a pretty good, got to a pretty good support point. i don't know if this is the right chart for 10-year yield, it got to a key support point it held. that was resistance point now we're back up. could the 10-year yield break out from here? what are you seeing? >> we are holding above 3% on the 10-year. 30 year also continues to hold. i mean it's been a big run in rates off of the march 2020 lows. so argument, you could say we overshot to the downside during covid and the covid panic. so does that lead us to the potential of an overshoot to the upside coming out of this until the market kind of finds its bearings?

i think that's, i think that's very possible. if we hold 3%, i don't think 4% is out of the question. charles: wow. that is amazing. that changes everything i think in my opinion. you're pretty brilliant guy but i hope you're wrong on this one. >> i do too some days. charles: thanks. i was checking out some of your notes, you talked about false breakouts, it got me intrigued. people who follow charts are always anxious for the breakouts. i've been guilty of getting in before the breakout assuming it would happen. when it doesn't there is hell to bay. give us an example? >> a lot of this really started a couple months ago with staples and utilities. those were kind of the final pieces, energy, that was last week but one area in particular that was holding up very, very well, all of 2022 is lone bright spot in transports which were shipping stocks. if you look at the etf, boat, b-o-a-t.

a lot of relative strength t has failed and its breakout a couple weeks ago and if you pulled up the chart you can see the carnage that. those are the types of things that i just hate. charles: we got the chart here. so top there, couple top, double top, it looked like it would break out. pretty good volume. when it didn't break out, man, to your point, a lot of damage to be paid. let's talk about these areas that didn't breach the may lows, because that is also a positive signal, right? >> it, right? obviously lots of areas continue to break below the may lows. if this is some top much bottom or some type of playable bounce if you feel so inclined there were areas that held up pretty well. biotech, cloud computing and believe it or not, as of much, as much they hate in the media the arc funds never broke the may lows. charles: wow. let me bring them up for you.

biotechs which seem to be basing here to your point. it held the line. it did not give up. that is pretty good. i know a lot of folks who actually like the biotechs. a very similar situation, i don't know, maybe you got a wedge forming right there. then finally of course arc, right? give arc some credit to your point. maybe is breaks out, if it does it will be off to the races. i can't have you here without getting your thoughts on bitcoin, a lot of pressure over the weekend, made a pretty good reversal. do we see a bottom from a technician's point of view, what is the action telling you? >> couple time this weekend they tried to break below 18,000. we ended upholding those highs from late 2017 right there on 19,500. i was expect to see some kind of a continued bounce. will it lead us back to the promised land, 60,000 and above? wouldn't go that far yet.

this is a blow off top like 2017. is this a blow off bottom? polarity is a real thing out there. we see a lot in technical analysis. some type of bottom, do we get a bounce off to 30,000 somewhere in there? maybe. this is 50% rally from here. so that is something you want to if you want to speculate on this is good risk/reward spot. charles: we have one of your char there. it says it all. getting to key point, resistance before, held that support, charting 101. if it bounces we're talking some pretty big gains. by the way we have michael saylor later in the show. ian, people love chart school. thanks so much, buddy. >> thanks, mike, charles. charles: california ramping up affordable housing efforts but there is one problem. each apartment cost million

dollars to build. affordable housing, the public sector will not be able to cure the housing crisis. stocks enjoying a pretty strong session is this only a bear market bounce? tell me what you think. tweet me @cvpayne. ♪. >> tech: cracked windshield? make it easy and schedule with safelite, because you can track us and see exactly when we'll be there. >> woman: i have a few more minutes. let's go! >> tech vo: that's service that fits your schedule. go to safelite.com. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

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charles: so the market getting hammered. everybody is trying to figure it out right? whether the worse might be over. some firms actually put together what they call market bottom checklist. coming into today's session, oppenheimer their technical team says we're 70% there. seven out of their 10 checklist items have been fulfilled. my next guest saw the bear market coming. in fact informed everyone in a series of fantastic research reports. the question now, how many market bottoms have been checked off her list? joining me new edge wealth cio cameron dawson. cameron, you do believe i'm not sure about the bottom but you think we're primed for some sort of a bounce, right? >> yes. we saw the checklist to say we

moved too far too fast to the downside. that sets up for some sort of a relief rally. what do you do as and investor to with the relief valley. we don't think this is the start of a brand new bull market or the start of a v-shaped recovery which means you have to be very careful about relief rallies not getting drowned into them. charles: do you participate at all or be just nimble or watch it saying i won't take the bait? >> depends on your timing. if you're a short-term trader there could be pretty big percentage moves. the think good opportunity to rebalance portfolios into strength. some areas beat up the most, really growth think names this year will probably have the biggest percentage rebounds on todays like today. that is great opportunity -- charles: number one percentage gainer is tesla. you would sell a name like a tessa or nvidia?

that seems like it falls into what you're describing here? >> if we look at growth overall it is still trading nearly a 70% premium to value. charles: right. >> it was as expensive over 100% back over last year but 20 to 30% is more in line with historical average. some of those growth names are going to continue to struggle. charles: oppenheimer has checklist of seven out of 10 things. what do you look that the bear market is over? you sounded like last week almost sounded like capitulation you were calling for? >> we started to see signs of capitulation mostly within the institutions. retail investors have not capitulated yet. charles: you're talking about diamond hands. they ain't going nowhere. >> exactly. we saw a record amount of short positioning by hedge funds. >> right. >> record shortness, that would

indicate some kind of a prime for bounce. the problem that is not a great timing tool because it can persist. we can stay at short levels for some time. that is why you have to be doubtful these are the beginning of something great. charles: energy is outperformer. energy is a valuation darling, do you estimate like that space? >> even though we saw energy absolutely get beaten up last week, it was down over 13%, versus the market down 2% if we zoom book, energy still in an uptrend on an absolute basis, still in an an uptrend relative to the market. if you look at credit we didn't see weakness in the energy credit. that tells you the energy weakness was a position shakeout. charles: what about the notion that the economy is going into a dramatic slowdown or might even be in recession? can you have it both ways? can energy prices still go up inside of a recession? >> there is certainly a point where energy prices going up

leads to demand destruction, it ends up spiraling down. that is what we saw last week. recession fears move up. i'm not so certain about the demand side of the equation but supply remains extremely tight, even though oil sold off -- charles: some of those structural parts of the story are not going away even ever, who knows. real quick, i want to ask you about two things. you said the fed is in a pickle. i think it is more after gordian knot. how do they get out of it? >> the problem with the fed monetary policy showing up in markets tightening immediately. we're seeing credit conditions tighten, liquidity tighten. it affects the economy with a lag. we could find a scenario you're seeing much more market weakness which the fed would like to support market, inflation still well above their target. they will be backed into a corner to choose one or the other. charles: right. they're not sure. in your mind have you decided what you think they are going to choose? >> that gordian knot finding a different solution.

don't untie it but cut it. we would find ourselves in a scenario where the fed is still fighting inflation but does targeted liquidity things in order to keep credit markets opening and if functioning. charles: you introduced me to the term high quality. can you give us a fresh example of a high quality name? >> we're seeing a lot of good things show up in health care and industrials because what we're seeing names that screamed high quality, good free cash flow, good return on invested capital, they're finally getting to valuations reasonable and attractive. we bought names in pharma, biotech. we bought names in the machinery sector, very selective this is where we're starting to finally see these names come to valuations we think are set up for the long run. charles: great stuff. listen i give you props. you were really right. your work was fantastic, spot on. you called it. thanks a lot, cameron see you soon. coming up the biden administration float aghast tax holiday. deneen borelli will weigh in on this.

also they will probably forgive college debt at the same time. federal reserve talking about it. they kind of want to make you poorer making your house worth less. i want housing expert erin sykes and give you her take. ♪ ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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and helps me be prepared for unexpected events. they make me feel like i've got it all under control. [crowd cheers] because i do. okay, that was awesome. voya. be confident to and through retirement. ♪. charles: so the federal reserve, they have a job to do and that is to make everyone watch this show poorer. i know it sounds cold-blooded, folks and wrong but it's the truth f you think that is a tough pill to swallow, middle class working folks who took a long time to save up, buy their home, they will suffer a whole lot more than rich folks. because the middle class wealth is from homeownership. powell needs to get you to stop spending. just how bad will it get?

let's ask the chief economist at nest seekers international erin sikes. erin, medium home sales in were negative year-over-year, month-over-month but prices set a brand new record. we know this can't be sustained forever. in fact the fed doesn't want it to be sustained forever. how do you see it played out? >> we saw home prices increase 20% across the board. we're looking at the united states as a whole. hamptons like go up 100%. places likes palm beach go up 200, 300%. if we see a pullback we'll not go back to zero which is positive for those invested already. the first-time home buyers is where it is really difficult, they didn't have the equity to trade from one home into the next. charles: or now, i mean, just between a year ago, just between increase in prices, right, 407,000 from existing home, higher mortgages, i read there is 46% increase in monthly payment. that is huge. that does make-or-break whether someone can buy a house.

i'm just concerned how long will that persist? do you see, between what the fed is trying to achieve and these higher prices, do a lot of people miss their chance? >> i don't think that people missed their chance. i think there is another opportunity coming. especially for those obviously in cash. there is a ton of opportunity to to capitalize on next six to 12 months. for those first-time home buyers, have to put up with the higher interest rates, right now you need to lock in the 6% 30-year fixed. it is really not that high on the grand scheme. get it fixed for 30 to 60 days, time to shop, maybe catch the falling knife of the falling home prices which we expect to hit during the center of summer into fall. every time there is a rate increase it takes two to three months for it really to catch up in terms of home prices. we're resetting a lot of psychology right now in terms of sellers and asking irrational pricing so it will take a time to settle out but it will come.

charles: you mentioned a fixed mortgage. are these adjustable mortgages, rate mortgages starting to peak up here again? >> yes. and that is dangerous. as we know that is one of the reasons for the 2008 crisis. now with those adjustable rate mortgages we see a low introductory rate for the first year. then you see increased every period for an indefinite period of time depending on what your loan is. people get sucked into those introductory rates. then they say oh, i will refinance later. however times that later does not come in the right time frame and they get stuck with all of those increases. so don't fall for it. charles: i've got something intriguing i want to pick your brain on. affordable housing obviously is a major issue in this country. california, what the state decided to do was get involved. they will help build, part of these multifamily units but unfortunately so far the

apartments, each apartment averaging a million dollars. each apartment. these are affordable homes. it is public sector of the does this say the private sector has to be involved in something like this? >> yes. it says that california cannot get out of its own way. this is ridiculous. they are affordable housing units costing more than moderate to luxury housing units. charles: a million dollar apartment, affordable housing. they say the subsidies, all the different rules and regulations. it just, you know, but it does argue that maybe sometimes government should get out of the way. even when they want to be involved let the private sector get involved? >> absolutely. you increase competition, you have more players. you need to shorten the bureaucracy timeline which is of course difficult to do when you're dealing with the government. charles: absolutely. erin, great seeing you in studio. it's been too long. thank you very much. i want to bring in deneen borelli. deneen, i want to pick up on the california story. it's a microcosm what the nation

is going through. it is a serious predictment. government spending in regard to the stimmie checks, without regard to balanced budget, it has had a negative impact. some say this goes specifically to the socialist themes of modern monetary theory but it should be a cautionary tale, right? >> you would think it would be a cautionary tale but democrats think spending more money is the answer. look, biden's build back broke is real. americans are suffering the consequences. we have record high inflation because of government stimulus. even former treasury secretary, democrat, larry summers, he was critical of biden's economic plan, critical of the stimulus. all of that was ignored. so democrats don't care about their consequences and how americans are being harmed. charles: so, some cities don't have this problem, deneen, because they never had home

prices go up in the first place. in fact home price have been going down for a whole lot of them in part because of crime. toledo, ohio, down 19% in march from a year earlier. only safer in 8% of other cities out there. 10 violent crimes for everyone thousand people. look at the list, it goes on and on. crime has become a major economic issue. why aren't these cities trying to do more? >> well unfortunately a lot of these cities are run by democrats, charles, and they promote soft on crime policies. they have a war on police, and so americans are endangered where in fact criminals are emboldened, going back to the consequences, they don't care how these consequences are harming americans. americans want to be safe in their own homes and in their neighborhoods and communities, their children to be safe. unfortunately a lot of crime, brazen crimes that are happening during the day. it is just breathtaking to see

the news on a regular basis. charles: breathtaking and heart-breaking. let me ask but the gas holiday from president biden. sounds like he is going to do it. what do you make of it? >> well, look, what biden needs to do is get out of the way. maybe take some bike lessons or something. get out of the way. let america unleash our energy. we were energy independent under president trump and what biden did day one was started breaking things unleashing his war on fossil fuels. no one should be surprised, charles, that we have record high gas prices because biden always had a war on fossil fuels. he doesn't want coal, oil, natural gas. this is no secret with this guy. charles: if people are not learning the less soon here, look at europe. they're taking coal power plants out of mothballs.

this whole thing is backwards but what is interesting, i saw a scene, headline kind of spilled the beans. i was looking at the gas tax holiday, but maybe at the same time we get the announcement we long heard was happening, 50,000-dollar student loan forgiveness. i think is the ultimate gift to the most blessed people in this country who are on the path to ultimate prosperity but elites who always vote democrat, just real quick in minute i got to go, tell me your thoughts how this might impact a country already seeing major tension? >> what does that have to do record high gas prices an inflation to address student loan debt? absolutely nothing. second of all, people need to be responsible to pay up their own debts, not use taxpayer funds to do so. this is nothing but a vote buying scheme by president biden because of the upcoming midterm elections because the democrats are going to get rolled, charles. charles: i bottom to tell you between evs, child tax

credits, now this, again the people who are the most successful in our nation are getting lavished with billions of dollars of taxpayer money, 2/3 come from people who didn't get a college degree. deneen, thank you so much. see you real soon. >> thank you. charles: special guest, bitcoin's michael say i don't remember. we'll talk about the crypto turmoil. is it giving him any doubts about the system and what is his responsibility when it comes to promoting bitcoin? i want to hear from you all about the market. you always tell me it is stacked. i have proof that will blow your mind in "my takeaway" later. tweet me @cvpayne. do you think the market is rigged? we'll be right back

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for ways to change their own fortunes outside after system many people believe is stacked against them. by the same token bitcoin, defy movement have got a heaping of scorn by the establishment. nobody has been on the receiving end of that scorn, than my next guest, founder, zoo yo of microstrategy, michael saylor. michael, we have to stop meeting like this, my man. the crypto crash has kept your name trending for a week or so. the naysayers, the tongs are wagging. i want to ask about the health of your company, reportedly there would be all sorts of margin calls, you're down 1.5 billion. how is microstrategy sitting okay, everything all right? >> we're just fine, charles. we've taken the long view. we've got a 10-year strategy. we have a great capital structure, a lot of permanent capital this has been an exciting time but otherwise we're just motoring through it. charles: okay. exciting as euphemism like crazy

as hell time, crazy like that? >> bitcoin has gone through three boom and bust cycles since we got involved f you're a short term, a short-term investor this is high-risk, high bait tax high volatility asset. but if you have a 10-year time view, if you're a long term investor it looks like a low risk store of value asset. it comes down to what your time horizon, what are you looking for out of the asset. charles: talk about those some of the things that might have, because of the news and some of the headlines and some reactions maybe what it could mean for the evolution of this whole thing, right? because every time there was a headline in crypto bitcoin went lower. what does it say about the notion the whole thing being decentralized, also maybe a need for some form of regulation? >> it's a immature asset class that is maturing and i think any form of regulation will be good, right?

the sec, cftc, the fast bi, fdic does any give guidance, the occ? it will all be good for bitcoin because look, there is one number keep in mind, 100. 100 is the number of hours that a reasonable person needs to spend to understand how this network works and why it's special and it's 100 times bigger than the next substitute or next competitor. once you understand what it is, if you have a long time horizon you realize it is fairly unique. you're just waiting for the rest of the world to understand what it is. many people take their cues from the government, like it or not. if the government clarifies the difference between a commodity, a security, a currency and how you can use these things i think that evens up, opens up a much easier path for institutional investors, mainstream investors and corporations to get involved. charles: so you've been seen as sort of pied piper of bitcoin

and some people are suggesting that maybe you have gone too far that you've been irresponsible, like for instance, suggesting people mortgage their homes and businesses. i want to share a sound bite with you and the audience, get your feelings on that. >> if you absolutely love the thing that you don't want to sell it, go mortgage your house and buy bitcoin with it. if you have got a business that you love because your family works for the business that is in your family for 37 years and you can't bear to sell it, mortgage it, finance it and convert the proceeds into the hardest money on earth which is bitcoin. >> so there are people i respect say you go too far with those kind of proclamations. what to you say? >> you know the critics always cherry-pick and they beat up on you at certain times but if we step back, the argue gentine peso lost 99.5% of its value over 20 years. the only way you could survive by going into debt and converting into a different

currency. that 30 year, 30-year mortgage, you could get one for 275 basis points a year ago. right now it is 580 basis points. so telling someone to take a 30-year mortgage when you could get one for half the current price for the rest of their life isn't bad financial advice. it is a lot of opportunity, if you didn't get that cheap money. long-term government subsidized debt is a reasonably good thing. if you step back and look at the big picture from first principles, look, bitcoin is up 52% on average per year for the past two years. for the last five years it is a 5% arr. for last 10 years, 124% arr. that is 10-x better than nasdaq over the past two years. you know there is no statutes to critics. i think that the critics need to give people a solution to their problem. i think if the inflation rate is higher than the interest rate,

you would rather be a debtor than a creditor and a person just got to take a long view, look out over the decade and ask themselves, how do i want to be positioned financially? if you can do that there are opportunities. charles: bottom line i always say, michael, you have put your money where your mouth is. a lot of cheerleaders, folks have bombs bombs. you have ultimate skin in the game. thanks for taking time, my friend. >> see you soon. charles: ever witch you cobuy a stock before major news sends it to the moon. it happens all the time. i well tell you how it happened today. is the fed up to the task? they never see the problems when they're happening. can they cure them? i will ask sven hendrichs. he is next.

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i sleep better, i eat better. took my shirt off for the first time in 25 years. it's golo. it's all golo. it's smarter, it's better, it will change your life forever. millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network, with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them. get $250 off an eligible 5g phone with xfinity mobile. take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings or visit your xfinity store and talk to our switch squad today. charles: all of sudden larry summers is the man of the hour. this of course after he warned of the $1.9 trillion covid relief package last year. he said it would trigger runaway

inflation. he was right. president biden at the time told him to pound sand. president actually name dropped mentioned larry summers even though he was saying recession is still avoidable. however here is the rub. summers is saying we'll need 5% jobless rate for five years to bring down inflation. joining me founder of north man trading.com, have ven hendrick. i have feeling biden, if summers told president biden this, he said you're a lying dog-faced pony soldier. no way we'll go five years to try to clean up inflation. what will happen with the inflation/recession debate situation we're locked? >> hi, charles. inflation is one aspect of it. one is the monetary fiscal excess which exacerbated the supply chain issues which by the way are getting better as well as commodity aspects. third one is geopolitical russia, ukraine, which feeds

into energy and food prices and the fed has little control over that at all whatsoever. the fourth one is psychology which is important aspect. expectations keep feeding on each other. that brings to the fifth issue which is political. midterms are coming here. i'm going on a limb in consumer confidence is in toilet, the markets are cart pet bombing still, inflation are still high, democrats will get obliterated at the midterms. they have every incentive to figure this out make all three look better before the midterms. charles: even temporary masking them, sending out, stopping gas taxes for instance, which in a way oddly puts money, create more spending if i don't spend it on gas, tate it to the mall and the fed is trying to stop me from going to the mall. >> basically a total mess. frankly the fed, projecting 3.8% fed funds rate for next year,

that virtually guaranties recession, not a slight one, a big one, because so much above the historic trend. last time as you recall, they barely got to 2.25 before they had to cave. this is very big mixed message on the one hand, hey, no recession in sight, on the other hand we'll put out a fed funds rate that virtually guaranties one. charles: where do we go from here? do you have confidence, whether the fed, janet yellen, president biden, christine lagarde, got an honorary degree from the london school of economics so i feel a little better now but can any do their job and get this fixed? >> yeah. don't you feel completely safe now, right? i don't [laughter] >> now look, there is a path to avoiding recession but it requires a significant improvement in the inflation data coming out this summer. if not, you're going to continue to have massive pressure on risk assets.

because markets were so disconnected from the size of the economy, them having already dropped so significantly here in this first half of the year, that is curbing consumer spending already. so both can't continue on this path, absolutely not. yes, ben bernanke said there was no recession coming in 2008. keep that in mind when we want to listen to fed speakers projecting all the good news. charles: they don't have a whole lot of credibility. i got less than a minute to go. i hate to be so short particularly with the wonderful backdrop there, you win the backdrop of the year. last time you were on, amazon, take a look at it. it took off like a rocket. you like anything here? >> well i like the fact that the both nyse, broad index as well as dow jones global index both hit their february 2020 highs last week and we're bouncing off from that. so that is key support. we also have risk with the weekly ma on nasdaq and s&p.

not sure we're going to get there. at quarter end would see another bar market rally. how far that goes depending on earnings reports coming out and i said inflation data showing improvement or more of a mess. charles: we'll take the bear market rallies for now. beggars can't be choosy. sven thanks so much. >> charles, you too. charles: folks, we'll be right back. >> tech: when you have auto glass damage, trust safelite. ...

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charles: so kellogg is a stock of the day that's after the company now to split up into three separate companies, to try to unlock value. it popped big out of the gate was up almost 12% from friday's close so this means that anyone who bought this ahead of the weekend scored big, if you were a holder, by the way, of some of these out of the money calls we're talking 72.5 and 75 calls it was a grand slam. now here is the thing. there was huge buy on this stock on friday. look at this , folks. 4.4 million shares traded, normally trades 2.6 million shares. these were strategic buyers by the way. these were people who knew something was going on and felt something was going on and you've got to ask yourself why, right? look at this. that's the volume on friday, late in the session, they loaded up on the stock. listen, i don't know who knew, i don't know how they knew, but this kind of thing happens over and over again. i've been in this business for over three decades and it absolutely stinks. that's why i never pushback when someone tells me the market is rigged however big time investors never get in trouble.

i've seen people work for print ing companies, friends of the companies, accountants, they get in trouble and occasional fund manager but for the most part this happens all the time. big money plays out all the single time, we see it happen with acquisitions, we see it happen with upgrades and downgrades. it's the kind of shenanigans that gets you frustrated but my message to you is you still have to stay in the stock market and it's the greatest money making machine ever, even if it's not a level playing field. liz claman, over to you. liz: am i'll the only one who opens the red berries cereal and picks them all out? charles: [laughter] liz: i didn't do anything. what? [laughter] i'm the one, good to see , hey charles, hot fun in the summer stock market, right? investors celebrating the first day of summer with a powerful rally, markets are on the move look at the dow up 733 points right now, following the three- day weekend and remember, you guys, we are coming off total market losses just last week alone